This is Post 4 of 16 in the Taiwan Risk Series. Full series at polarismng.com

KPI #4 — China Named the Target. That’s Never Happened Before 🔴

Specificity of Military Exercises

What it measures: Whether PLA exercises simulate generic tactical scenarios, or identify real, named Taiwanese civilian infrastructure as targets.

This is the only KPI currently in the red zone. And it crossed that threshold in a way that should have attracted more international business attention than it did.

In April 2025, the PLA conducted “Strait Thunder 2025A.” Previous editions of Strait Thunder simulated blockades and generic military objectives. This edition was different. The PLA published official imagery showing six missiles superimposed over the locations of Taiwan’s main liquefied natural gas storage facilities — specifically the Yung-an LNG terminal in Kaohsiung.

This was not an abstract simulation. These are real facilities. Real coordinates. Published by the official PLA mouthpiece.

In conflict studies, this type of public targeting of named civilian infrastructure serves a specific psychological function: it is preparation of the domestic and military audience for the legitimacy of attacking civilian supply infrastructure. It signals to Taiwan, to the US, and to China’s own soldiers that the next step is not unthinkable.

Current status: 🔴 Red. A threshold crossed in April 2025 with no historical precedent. The KPI is in red. It has not returned to amber.

📍 Next in the series

KPI #5 — Troops Don’t Lie. Military exercises tell us intent. Troop concentration tells us timeline. What satellite imagery of the Eastern Theatre Command is — and isn’t — showing right now.

⚡ The consequence to watch

Taiwan’s LNG terminals supply the majority of the island’s electricity generation. A strike on those facilities in the opening hours of a conflict would create civilian infrastructure collapse before any ground force arrives. For global business: this is the scenario that makes a conflict shorter but more catastrophic for supply chains.

🔧 The drill

If your business depends on Taiwanese manufacturing output — directly or through a supplier — model what happens to your operations if Taiwan loses grid stability for 30 days. That is now a scenario with a published targeting precedent.

Sources: Janes Defence Intelligence (July 2025); PLA Daily official imagery, April 2025. Full series: polarismng.com