This is Post 3 of 16 in the Taiwan Risk Series. Full series at polarismng.com

KPI #3 — 1,700 Violations in a Single Year

Taiwan’s ADIZ Incursion Rate

What it measures: Annual number of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).

An Air Defence Identification Zone is not sovereign airspace — it is a self-declared monitoring boundary that a nation uses to identify, locate, and control approaching aircraft. Taiwan’s ADIZ extends well into the Taiwan Strait and over parts of the East China Sea.

When PLA aircraft enter this zone, two things happen simultaneously. Taiwan’s air force scrambles — burning jet fuel, accumulating pilot fatigue, and degrading readiness over time. And the PLA accumulates real-world data on Taiwanese response times, radar coverage, and defensive patterns. At scale, this is not provocation. It is reconnaissance and attrition preparation dressed as provocation.

The trajectory is unambiguous: 910 incursions in 2023. 1,700 in 2024. An 87% increase in a single year. If the same growth rate continues, 2025 would see over 3,000 incursions — well into the red zone when combined with the joint exercises we will cover in KPI #4.

Current status: 🟡 Amber. At 1,700 annual incursions, this KPI is approaching the upper boundary of the amber zone. The direction of travel matters as much as the current reading.

📍 Next in the series

KPI #4 — China Named the Target. That’s Never Happened Before. In April 2025, PLA exercises crossed a threshold with no historical precedent. This is the only KPI currently in the red zone.

⚡ The consequence to watch

Sustained ADIZ pressure degrades Taiwan’s air force readiness over time. If this KPI reaches red simultaneously with KPI #5 (troop build-up), the combined signal indicates active pre-invasion softening — not just coercion.

🔧 The drill

Monitor the Taiwan Ministry of National Defence daily releases (mnd.gov.tw) — they publish ADIZ incursion data in near real-time. Set a quarterly review in your risk calendar to check whether the annual run rate is accelerating.

Sources: PLAAF incursion data via Taiwan MND; debuglies.com analysis (Aug 2025); Janes Defence Intelligence (July 2025). Full series: polarismng.com